Solar payback after the tax credit: the 50-state picture

By the SolarSavingsMap editorial team · Published July 2026 · Free to cite with attribution and a link · Download the data (CSV)

On December 31, 2025 the 30% federal residential solar credit ended — no phase-out, no replacement. Yet most "solar savings" tools online still quietly bake it in. We wanted to see how much that one change moves the honest answer to "is solar worth it?", so we re-ran every state's payback math with and without the credit. The short version: the map didn't just shift, it split.

Key findings

The federal residential solar credit (Section 25D) expired December 31, 2025 with no phase-out. Purchased systems in 2026 receive no federal credit.
Across all 50 states, the average simple payback for a purchased system moved from 7.5 years (with the credit) to 10.4 years (without) — a +2.9-year shift, at a $150/month bill.
States with a sub-10-year payback dropped from 46 to 24.
Solar remains clearly worth it in high-rate states (Hawaii, California, Connecticut: 4.2–6.8 yrs) and hard to justify on savings alone in the cheapest-electricity states (North Dakota, Washington: 15.0+ yrs).
Third-party-owned systems (lease/PPA) can still capture the commercial 48E credit through 2027 — one reason lease offers look relatively better in 2026.

All 50 states: payback with vs without the credit

#	State	Payback w/ 30% ITC (yrs)	Payback 2026 (yrs)	Shift	25-yr net savings
1	Hawaii	3.0	4.2	+1.2	$49,500
2	California	3.3	4.6	+1.3	$49,000
3	Connecticut	4.9	6.8	+2.0	$44,500
4	Arizona	5.2	7.2	+2.1	$43,500
5	Rhode Island	5.6	7.8	+2.2	$42,500
6	Texas	5.7	8.0	+2.3	$42,000
7	Nevada	5.9	8.3	+2.3	$41,500
8	New York	6.0	8.4	+2.4	$41,500
9	Maine	6.1	8.5	+2.4	$41,000
10	New Jersey	6.1	8.5	+2.4	$41,000
11	Massachusetts	6.2	8.6	+2.4	$41,000
12	New Mexico	6.3	8.7	+2.5	$40,500
13	Maryland	6.3	8.8	+2.5	$40,500
14	Pennsylvania	6.3	8.8	+2.5	$40,500
15	New Hampshire	6.3	8.8	+2.5	$40,500
16	Illinois	6.6	9.2	+2.6	$39,500
17	Alabama	6.7	9.3	+2.6	$39,500
18	Georgia	6.9	9.6	+2.7	$39,000
19	South Carolina	7.0	9.7	+2.7	$38,500
20	Vermont	7.0	9.7	+2.7	$38,500
21	North Carolina	7.1	9.8	+2.8	$38,000
22	Delaware	7.1	9.9	+2.8	$38,000
23	Mississippi	7.2	10.0	+2.8	$38,000
24	Florida	7.2	10.0	+2.8	$38,000
25	Ohio	7.2	10.0	+2.8	$38,000
26	Michigan	7.3	10.2	+2.8	$37,500
27	Kansas	7.4	10.3	+2.9	$37,000
28	Virginia	7.5	10.4	+2.9	$37,000
29	Indiana	7.7	10.7	+3.0	$36,500
30	Colorado	7.9	10.9	+3.0	$36,000
31	Oklahoma	8.0	11.0	+3.1	$35,500
32	Utah	8.0	11.1	+3.1	$35,500
33	Wisconsin	8.1	11.2	+3.1	$35,000
34	Louisiana	8.1	11.2	+3.1	$35,000
35	Tennessee	8.3	11.5	+3.2	$34,500
36	Wyoming	8.4	11.6	+3.2	$34,500
37	Arkansas	8.6	11.8	+3.3	$34,000
38	South Dakota	8.7	12.0	+3.3	$33,500
39	Kentucky	8.8	12.1	+3.3	$33,000
40	Missouri	9.0	12.4	+3.4	$32,500
41	West Virginia	9.2	12.7	+3.5	$32,000
42	Minnesota	9.3	12.8	+3.5	$31,500
43	Nebraska	9.4	12.9	+3.5	$31,500
44	Alaska	9.4	13.0	+3.6	$31,000
45	Oregon	9.8	13.5	+3.7	$30,000
46	Montana	9.9	13.6	+3.7	$30,000
47	Idaho	10.2	14.0	+3.8	$29,000
48	Iowa	10.4	14.3	+3.9	$28,000
49	North Dakota	10.8	14.8	+4.0	$27,000
50	Washington	11.0	15.0	+4.1	$26,500

The single biggest shift, and the states that flipped

The largest single jump is Washington, where estimated payback stretches from 11.0 to 15.0 years once the credit is gone. 22 states cross from a sub-10-year payback into double digits: Ohio, Michigan, Kansas, Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Oklahoma, Utah, Wisconsin, Louisiana, Tennessee, Wyoming, Arkansas, South Dakota, Kentucky, Missouri, West Virginia, Minnesota, Nebraska, Alaska, Oregon, Montana.

Fastest payback (2026, no credit)

Hawaii — 4.2 yrs
California — 4.6 yrs
Connecticut — 6.8 yrs
Arizona — 7.2 yrs
Rhode Island — 7.8 yrs
Texas — 8.0 yrs
Nevada — 8.3 yrs
New York — 8.4 yrs
Maine — 8.5 yrs
New Jersey — 8.5 yrs

Slowest payback (2026, no credit)

Washington — 15.0 yrs
North Dakota — 14.8 yrs
Iowa — 14.3 yrs
Idaho — 14.0 yrs
Montana — 13.6 yrs
Oregon — 13.5 yrs
Alaska — 13.0 yrs
Nebraska — 12.9 yrs
Minnesota — 12.8 yrs
West Virginia — 12.7 yrs

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Free to reuse with attribution and a link back. Suggested citation:

SolarSavingsMap, "Solar payback after the tax credit: a 50-state report" (July 2026), solarsavingsmap.com/post-itc-payback-report.

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Reporters and researchers: the full inputs are in solar-states-2026.csv; email [email protected] for the model details or a specific cut of the data.

Methodology

Scenario: $150/month electric bill, cash purchase, system sized for 100% offset, good roof.
EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A — average residential price, April 2026 (published June 25, 2026).
NREL solar resource data (average daily peak sun hours, long-term); 22% system derate; 0.5%/yr degradation; 2.5%/yr rate escalation.
2026 installed-cost estimates aggregated from published installer marketplace data; actual quotes vary.
Simplification: savings assume retail-rate offset; reduced-export states (e.g. CA NEM 3.0) will see longer real paybacks without storage. Excludes maintenance and financing.
Full input data: solar-states-2026.csv. Questions or corrections: [email protected].

Solar savings by state

Texas · Florida · California · Arizona · North Carolina · Georgia · Nevada · Colorado · New York · New Jersey · Massachusetts · Pennsylvania · Ohio · Virginia · South Carolina · Maryland · Illinois · Washington · Michigan · Connecticut · Maine · New Hampshire · Rhode Island · Vermont · Indiana · Wisconsin · Iowa · Kansas · Minnesota · Missouri · Nebraska · North Dakota · South Dakota · Delaware · West Virginia · Alabama · Kentucky · Mississippi · Tennessee · Arkansas · Louisiana · Oklahoma · Idaho · Montana · New Mexico · Utah · Wyoming · Oregon · Alaska · Hawaii